Currently the world is enveloped in crisis after crisis. The pinyin for the word Crisis is ‘Wei Ji’. ‘Wei’ means danger while ‘Ji’ means opportunity.
In a crisis, it means that within danger, there is also opportunity; if one plans ahead and has the means. When there is one crisis after another like now, opportunities of a lifetime would abound and ripe for the taking if one had planned it well.
What does one mean by having the means?
If you are cash rich and hold minimal stocks or none at all at the moment, you have the means.
What does one mean by planning ahead?
Soon there would be lifetime opportunities for the taking, if not already. One would suggest to senior citizens – retirees, pensioners or those near to retirement – who have the means to plan to buy the bluest of the blue chips in your country, be it the US, Canada and Europe.
Look for utility companies, beverages companies and tech stocks for example ATT, Nestle, Coca Cola, IBM, Microsoft Corporation and British Telecoms to invest in. Ensure that the companies you want to invest in are making profits from their operations, cash rich, hold minimal debt and pay regular dividends by looking up their financial statements and/or annual reports for the past few years.
Ask your financial advisors to look up these criteria if you do not understand financial statements or reports. With the current dwindling trades in the stock markets, I am sure the financial advisers would be more than willing to provide you this service.
After obtaining the necessary information, and feeling comfortable with the companies, set realistic target prices to buy their stocks; setting new lifetime lows are okay but do not set too low a target or you may never be able to own a good and safe stock which may still be profitable, paying regular dividends during a severe recession or even in a great depression, if any.
Keep monitoring your target companies’ share prices and news reports on them. Start buying once the set targets have been reached. Never put all your money in just one stock.
Do not mind stock analysts or market gurus’ lower calls, unless something is really wrong with the company concerned! If they know so much about markets and timing, their funds or hedge funds would not have lost their shirts or had to close shop.
From online news, I gather that share prices of some old established institutions in the US have already reached a few decades low. If they are good and safe companies, have a look at them. These are examples of opportunities of a lifetime within the crises, are they not?
Start doing your homework now to plan ahead.
Once your country’s economy turns good again, you could reap huge capital gains from those stocks that you have planned ahead and bought, if you want. And do not forget to donate some money to your favorite charity from the realized gains that you made from the stock market during the current crises. The needy, the orphanages, the old folk’s homes and those in dire straits need our help.
No, you guys and gals do not have to buy a billion US dollars worth of CDO and CDS off me for this free lunch! (In case, some do not understand the joke, US investment bankers had been providing free lunches for the old fools flying in from Europe for the past few years to encourage them to buy the now toxic products and other derivatives, according to online news.)
Lunch is on me because of your continued support over the past few years.
Thanks and good luck!
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Dawn raids on pension funds
Just when you think that your money is safe, your government after using up the country’s reserves and emptying your children’s piggy banks (in relation to the future tax burdens they have to bear), will soon, if not started already, make dawn raids on your parents’ and your pension funds.
(At the time of writing, Argentina has just announced the nationalization of the country’s private pension funds while our government has already announced that they will borrow a few billion from our largest pension fund of which I am still a member to support the stock market.)
No, you cannot blame the government. The conventional wisdom of not to bail failing companies has been thrown out of the window, as expected.
Desperate times need desperate measures, and governments are indeed desperate since they don’t know what to do.
The safety net has widened considerably if you have not noticed. (Think of the bail outs of insurers, real property companies, and businesses, for example Korea, that betted heavily on the continued appreciation of their country’s currency against the US dollar and got severely whacked.)
A country’s financial system, her stock market and currency have to be saved at any cost – unless the government officials have to use their own money. Every government leader wants to be the hero or heroine of the day in the current crises.
Every moment is just a breath-take away from the reversal of the bottom of the global stock markets. If dumping tens and hundreds of billions of US dollars into the system do not work, and when the chips are down, why not try trillions? Brilliant strategy!
If the country runs out of money trying to rescue all the sinking and rotten toxic laden boats, the easiest or the softest touch is to raid the huge cash pile still available in the pension funds. After all, Japan has had set the precedent during the early 1990s. And look how well she has been doing since then, despite the so called lost decade. That is if you do not mind paying the banks like the Japanese did, a small annual interest or a fee for keeping your money with them rather than keeping cash under the mattress or in the safe for years on end.
The rather unfortunate thing to this is that almost all governments in the world are caught up in the game and feeling rather feverish in the loins. In case, you do not understand gaming analogy, gamblers feel feverish after laying heavy bets all across the table hoping that the roulette ball will eventually fall on their betted numbers.
A roar goes up if they win but they feel peevish when they lose. Perhaps these governments should just stick to playing red or black since they have already lost tons of their country’s money playing the numbers, don’t you think? Or perhaps, they should ask those French who frequent Monte Carlo, how to really play roulette.
Playing red or black can certainly provide a better percentage of wins than the numbers. Instead of the numerous I don’t knows you get from those government officials who are supposed to be in charge, after quickly burning up the country’s reserves and money in your children’s piggy banks.
Of course the global stock markets had roared for two days after the weekend announcement that the US and Europe would pump in almost three trillion US dollars to bail out their financial systems. Mr. Market approved and the markets rose by the same amount in value, if not more. A fair exchange, one would say.
However you cannot blame the markets for plunging again after the initial euphoria. Mr. Market is probably now waiting for more trillion dollars announcements before he decides to roar again. That is one reason, the governments may dawn raid their countries’ pension funds rather than resort to continuously print money up till late next year to pay for their recently acquired gambling habits and those of their rescued or adopted kids – those unrepentant hard core gamblers who still point fingers at others for the fall of world renowned institutions.
And in a very wrong way, these well heeled Americans and Europeans have become more Chinese than expected.
Instead of learning their ancient virtues, they have learned their vices and have finally taken over the mantle from the Chinese to become the new kings of gamblers, in terms of magnitude.
The Chinese men in the street who have gambling in their blood can only afford to lose their shirt or their lives while these well heeled and learned guys can lose hundreds of billions (almost 700 Billion to date) and bring down giant institutions. And still managed to get well paid plus huge bonuses to boot – outstanding back pay and bonuses amounted to 69 Billion US dollars, I last heard.
Therefore, no contest, these well heeled intellects win hands down. And the whole world including you and me loses.
No, I am still sitting on my hands, if readers want to know if I have started to invest in the stock market. And since no institution or government wants to pay anything for the trillion dollar answer of when the bear markets will reverse, which can be provided at a very reasonable price, I will go into hiding.
There you go no free lunches and spoon feeding, even if kin, good friends and regular readers ask. Unless I can sell you a CDO or CDS worth a USD billion that no one else wants!
(At the time of writing, Argentina has just announced the nationalization of the country’s private pension funds while our government has already announced that they will borrow a few billion from our largest pension fund of which I am still a member to support the stock market.)
No, you cannot blame the government. The conventional wisdom of not to bail failing companies has been thrown out of the window, as expected.
Desperate times need desperate measures, and governments are indeed desperate since they don’t know what to do.
The safety net has widened considerably if you have not noticed. (Think of the bail outs of insurers, real property companies, and businesses, for example Korea, that betted heavily on the continued appreciation of their country’s currency against the US dollar and got severely whacked.)
A country’s financial system, her stock market and currency have to be saved at any cost – unless the government officials have to use their own money. Every government leader wants to be the hero or heroine of the day in the current crises.
Every moment is just a breath-take away from the reversal of the bottom of the global stock markets. If dumping tens and hundreds of billions of US dollars into the system do not work, and when the chips are down, why not try trillions? Brilliant strategy!
If the country runs out of money trying to rescue all the sinking and rotten toxic laden boats, the easiest or the softest touch is to raid the huge cash pile still available in the pension funds. After all, Japan has had set the precedent during the early 1990s. And look how well she has been doing since then, despite the so called lost decade. That is if you do not mind paying the banks like the Japanese did, a small annual interest or a fee for keeping your money with them rather than keeping cash under the mattress or in the safe for years on end.
The rather unfortunate thing to this is that almost all governments in the world are caught up in the game and feeling rather feverish in the loins. In case, you do not understand gaming analogy, gamblers feel feverish after laying heavy bets all across the table hoping that the roulette ball will eventually fall on their betted numbers.
A roar goes up if they win but they feel peevish when they lose. Perhaps these governments should just stick to playing red or black since they have already lost tons of their country’s money playing the numbers, don’t you think? Or perhaps, they should ask those French who frequent Monte Carlo, how to really play roulette.
Playing red or black can certainly provide a better percentage of wins than the numbers. Instead of the numerous I don’t knows you get from those government officials who are supposed to be in charge, after quickly burning up the country’s reserves and money in your children’s piggy banks.
Of course the global stock markets had roared for two days after the weekend announcement that the US and Europe would pump in almost three trillion US dollars to bail out their financial systems. Mr. Market approved and the markets rose by the same amount in value, if not more. A fair exchange, one would say.
However you cannot blame the markets for plunging again after the initial euphoria. Mr. Market is probably now waiting for more trillion dollars announcements before he decides to roar again. That is one reason, the governments may dawn raid their countries’ pension funds rather than resort to continuously print money up till late next year to pay for their recently acquired gambling habits and those of their rescued or adopted kids – those unrepentant hard core gamblers who still point fingers at others for the fall of world renowned institutions.
And in a very wrong way, these well heeled Americans and Europeans have become more Chinese than expected.
Instead of learning their ancient virtues, they have learned their vices and have finally taken over the mantle from the Chinese to become the new kings of gamblers, in terms of magnitude.
The Chinese men in the street who have gambling in their blood can only afford to lose their shirt or their lives while these well heeled and learned guys can lose hundreds of billions (almost 700 Billion to date) and bring down giant institutions. And still managed to get well paid plus huge bonuses to boot – outstanding back pay and bonuses amounted to 69 Billion US dollars, I last heard.
Therefore, no contest, these well heeled intellects win hands down. And the whole world including you and me loses.
No, I am still sitting on my hands, if readers want to know if I have started to invest in the stock market. And since no institution or government wants to pay anything for the trillion dollar answer of when the bear markets will reverse, which can be provided at a very reasonable price, I will go into hiding.
There you go no free lunches and spoon feeding, even if kin, good friends and regular readers ask. Unless I can sell you a CDO or CDS worth a USD billion that no one else wants!
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Watching heaven fall (2)
Less than a month after seeing the closure of heaven and earth on September 15, people across the globe are currently witnessing yet another lifetime phenomenon, that of the falling of heaven.
The way global investors in great panic scrambled out of the stock markets in the flight to safety last week looks as if heaven is falling down, does it not?
The status quo of human nature remains since time immemorial. Humans rely on their basic instincts of survival and run for cover fleeing to safety whenever there is pandemonium on earth.
In such times of crises, the West talks about the phenomenon of the sky falling out, while the Chinese call it, heaven falling.
Within the week ended October 10, the Japanese, Russian and Indonesian stock markets had fallen 20% or more. The Russian and Indonesian markets were temporary suspended to stop the incessant selling down of stocks. Many other stock market indices across the world including the Dow Jones plummeted 10% to 20%.
Trillions of US dollars in value have simply disappeared from the global stock markets in the cascading falls commencing from September 15 just when Tao has receded all under heaven.
Repeating history, like what the Japanese people did in the early 1990s, the Americans have resorted to buying safes (sales of safes have shot up by 44% in the USA, the last couple of months according to online news reports) to keep cash at home rather than putting their trust in banks or relying on the government to look after their hard earned money. This says a lot, doesn’t it?
If you really think that the Japanese and Americans are rather silly or that the investors fleeing to safety have completely lost their minds, you could be the one fooling yourself and/or had been acting like an ostrich amidst this falling of heaven.
Hunker down, batten the hatches, like the able man withdraw into the dark for safety and security as advised by the Zhouyi before it is too late to do anything.
P.S.
Readers are again reminded that they are solely responsible for their own actions or non actions.
The way global investors in great panic scrambled out of the stock markets in the flight to safety last week looks as if heaven is falling down, does it not?
The status quo of human nature remains since time immemorial. Humans rely on their basic instincts of survival and run for cover fleeing to safety whenever there is pandemonium on earth.
In such times of crises, the West talks about the phenomenon of the sky falling out, while the Chinese call it, heaven falling.
Within the week ended October 10, the Japanese, Russian and Indonesian stock markets had fallen 20% or more. The Russian and Indonesian markets were temporary suspended to stop the incessant selling down of stocks. Many other stock market indices across the world including the Dow Jones plummeted 10% to 20%.
Trillions of US dollars in value have simply disappeared from the global stock markets in the cascading falls commencing from September 15 just when Tao has receded all under heaven.
Repeating history, like what the Japanese people did in the early 1990s, the Americans have resorted to buying safes (sales of safes have shot up by 44% in the USA, the last couple of months according to online news reports) to keep cash at home rather than putting their trust in banks or relying on the government to look after their hard earned money. This says a lot, doesn’t it?
If you really think that the Japanese and Americans are rather silly or that the investors fleeing to safety have completely lost their minds, you could be the one fooling yourself and/or had been acting like an ostrich amidst this falling of heaven.
Hunker down, batten the hatches, like the able man withdraw into the dark for safety and security as advised by the Zhouyi before it is too late to do anything.
P.S.
Readers are again reminded that they are solely responsible for their own actions or non actions.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Determining how and when Tao pervades or recesses all under Heaven
This entry is dedicated to those scholars of Tao and/or the Zhouyi who graced this blog with their visits or comments; since what is written could be profound and above the heads of many.
Therefore if it is beyond your immediate understanding, reread it when you are ready. It may provide you with further clarity on ancient Chinese thoughts and a deeper understanding of the Tao Te Ching and the Zhouyi. It would also depend on whether or not, first class scholars of Tao and/or the Yi would want to weigh in with their comments and thoughts. Here goes.
It is said that Heaven governs time while Earth governs space. To overcome fate, the Junzi needs to master time and space. Therefore the study of Heaven and Earth was of special interest to the ancients and the Junzi down the ages. This study can be considered part and parcel of Tao and the Zhouyi.
Investigating into things, one has found a particular teaching on Heaven and Earth which may arouse the interest of scholars of the three doctrines.
Top scholars and those who have cultivated Tao for a decade or more are most welcome to try to find the real meaning behind this teaching that the ancient sages passed down to posterity in their respective classics and book – the Book of Changes, the Tao Te Ching, and the Analects.
The second part of the exercise is to determine how and when such phenomena - the pervasion and recess of Tao which can be paraphrased as the opening and closing of heaven and earth - occur. The thing to remember is the examination of the subject of Tao and the Zhouyi, and not either or. Otherwise the scholar may not fully understand this ancient teaching.
About two thousand five hundred years ago, Laozi wrote in the Tao Te Ching:
‘May not the space between heaven and earth be compared to a bellows? Emptied, yet it loses not its power; moved again, and it sends forth air the more.’ [Legge]
On or about the same time, Confucius taught this to his students as recorded in Book 8 Chapter 13 of the Analects:
‘When Tao pervades all under heaven, be prominent. When Tao recesses, go into hiding.’ [AL]
In the Da Zhuan (The Great Treatise), it is said:
‘The Book of Changes is vast and great. When one speaks of what is far, it knows no limits. When one speaks of what is near, it is still and right. When one speaks of the space between heaven and earth, it embraces everything.’ [W/B]
In the Commentaries to the Hexagrams, it is said:
‘When heaven and earth are creating in change and transformation, all plants and trees flourish; but when heaven and earth close, the able man withdraws into the dark.’ [W/B]
Since the teaching is related, the holy sages and the two great sages knew or would have experienced what had been indicated. It depicts that great minds think alike. Grasping the complete meaning can advance our own understanding of Tao, Yi, cultivation and fate. However, it does not mean that our knowledge is equal to these ancient sages.
It is said that a great and wise scholar, Wang Bi [A D 226 – 249] wrote about the meaning of the Book of Changes as a book of wisdom, not as a book of divination. Several centuries later, a top Confucian scholar, Zhu Xi [A D 1130 – 1200] attempted to rehabilitate it as a book of oracles; in addition to a short and precise commentary on the I Ching, he published an introduction to his investigations concerning the art of divination. [W/B lx]
Since the Book of Changes has been or can be used as a book of wisdom or a book of oracles, both the two scholars were right. However if Yi aficionados use the Book of Changes solely for wisdom or only for divination, then I am afraid they may not have reached a sufficient depth to understand or interpret what the ancients had said in this instance.
Having read some articles on their thoughts, both these scholars cannot be said to have deep knowledge of the workings of Tao as compared to Chen Tuan and Shao Yong.
Perhaps a simple explanation can be suggested: ‘Wang Bi who died early at the young age of 24, and Zhu Xi, strictly a Confucian, were not versed with neidan (inner alchemy) meditation’.
For ‘without seeing what can be seen, without feeling what can be felt, without hearing what can be heard’ as indicated in the Tao Te Ching, Daoist texts, and in Buddha’s Shurangama Sutra; how far can any Tao cultivator go? If one cannot go far in the real cultivation, how much can one really know about Tao?
Sinologists and their Chinese mentors appeared not to have shown their comprehension of the entire meaning in the teaching, even if they were versed with Classical Chinese and ancient philosophy.
The renowned late sinologist, James Legge and his mentor(s) had somehow completely fluffed the meaning in his Analects translation, the reason for my simple translation of what Confucius had actually said. Legge mentioned – caution – in his interpretation of the line in the Zhouyi.
Richard Wilhelm and his learned mentor did better by explaining why and what the able have to do, with the closing of Heaven and Earth. But Wilhelm and his mentor had not covered the angle on Tao.
If cultivators of Tao and Yi scholars do not understand what Laozi and Confucius meant, writings of the Zhen Ren or the Quanzhen heavenly immortals like Zhong Liquan, Lu Dongbin and Zhang Boduan can provide some guidance.
If you cannot find the real meaning behind the teaching on Tao and the Zhouyi, and/or the second part of the exercise – the determination of how and when the phenomena occur - try discussing it with likeminded fellows or consult your learned teacher(s) including the Heavenly immortals (Tian Xian), if any.
But do not expect any help from me. Since how would I know?
P.S.
I thought the entry on Hexagram 62 which took three working days to write and fine tuned was long since the sensitivities of a well known translator had to be taken into account, to prove a point.
This entry took much longer, since it could be a revelation or not of a real teaching. Over the past few weeks, I had to ponder and reread what were indicated by the ancients, the Zhen Ren and the wise.
Therefore I would appreciate if readers provide a citation to this blog entry if they intend to use the material elsewhere for their studies, website, blog, and/or for gain.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Therefore if it is beyond your immediate understanding, reread it when you are ready. It may provide you with further clarity on ancient Chinese thoughts and a deeper understanding of the Tao Te Ching and the Zhouyi. It would also depend on whether or not, first class scholars of Tao and/or the Yi would want to weigh in with their comments and thoughts. Here goes.
It is said that Heaven governs time while Earth governs space. To overcome fate, the Junzi needs to master time and space. Therefore the study of Heaven and Earth was of special interest to the ancients and the Junzi down the ages. This study can be considered part and parcel of Tao and the Zhouyi.
Investigating into things, one has found a particular teaching on Heaven and Earth which may arouse the interest of scholars of the three doctrines.
Top scholars and those who have cultivated Tao for a decade or more are most welcome to try to find the real meaning behind this teaching that the ancient sages passed down to posterity in their respective classics and book – the Book of Changes, the Tao Te Ching, and the Analects.
The second part of the exercise is to determine how and when such phenomena - the pervasion and recess of Tao which can be paraphrased as the opening and closing of heaven and earth - occur. The thing to remember is the examination of the subject of Tao and the Zhouyi, and not either or. Otherwise the scholar may not fully understand this ancient teaching.
About two thousand five hundred years ago, Laozi wrote in the Tao Te Ching:
‘May not the space between heaven and earth be compared to a bellows? Emptied, yet it loses not its power; moved again, and it sends forth air the more.’ [Legge]
On or about the same time, Confucius taught this to his students as recorded in Book 8 Chapter 13 of the Analects:
‘When Tao pervades all under heaven, be prominent. When Tao recesses, go into hiding.’ [AL]
In the Da Zhuan (The Great Treatise), it is said:
‘The Book of Changes is vast and great. When one speaks of what is far, it knows no limits. When one speaks of what is near, it is still and right. When one speaks of the space between heaven and earth, it embraces everything.’ [W/B]
In the Commentaries to the Hexagrams, it is said:
‘When heaven and earth are creating in change and transformation, all plants and trees flourish; but when heaven and earth close, the able man withdraws into the dark.’ [W/B]
Since the teaching is related, the holy sages and the two great sages knew or would have experienced what had been indicated. It depicts that great minds think alike. Grasping the complete meaning can advance our own understanding of Tao, Yi, cultivation and fate. However, it does not mean that our knowledge is equal to these ancient sages.
It is said that a great and wise scholar, Wang Bi [A D 226 – 249] wrote about the meaning of the Book of Changes as a book of wisdom, not as a book of divination. Several centuries later, a top Confucian scholar, Zhu Xi [A D 1130 – 1200] attempted to rehabilitate it as a book of oracles; in addition to a short and precise commentary on the I Ching, he published an introduction to his investigations concerning the art of divination. [W/B lx]
Since the Book of Changes has been or can be used as a book of wisdom or a book of oracles, both the two scholars were right. However if Yi aficionados use the Book of Changes solely for wisdom or only for divination, then I am afraid they may not have reached a sufficient depth to understand or interpret what the ancients had said in this instance.
Having read some articles on their thoughts, both these scholars cannot be said to have deep knowledge of the workings of Tao as compared to Chen Tuan and Shao Yong.
Perhaps a simple explanation can be suggested: ‘Wang Bi who died early at the young age of 24, and Zhu Xi, strictly a Confucian, were not versed with neidan (inner alchemy) meditation’.
For ‘without seeing what can be seen, without feeling what can be felt, without hearing what can be heard’ as indicated in the Tao Te Ching, Daoist texts, and in Buddha’s Shurangama Sutra; how far can any Tao cultivator go? If one cannot go far in the real cultivation, how much can one really know about Tao?
Sinologists and their Chinese mentors appeared not to have shown their comprehension of the entire meaning in the teaching, even if they were versed with Classical Chinese and ancient philosophy.
The renowned late sinologist, James Legge and his mentor(s) had somehow completely fluffed the meaning in his Analects translation, the reason for my simple translation of what Confucius had actually said. Legge mentioned – caution – in his interpretation of the line in the Zhouyi.
Richard Wilhelm and his learned mentor did better by explaining why and what the able have to do, with the closing of Heaven and Earth. But Wilhelm and his mentor had not covered the angle on Tao.
If cultivators of Tao and Yi scholars do not understand what Laozi and Confucius meant, writings of the Zhen Ren or the Quanzhen heavenly immortals like Zhong Liquan, Lu Dongbin and Zhang Boduan can provide some guidance.
If you cannot find the real meaning behind the teaching on Tao and the Zhouyi, and/or the second part of the exercise – the determination of how and when the phenomena occur - try discussing it with likeminded fellows or consult your learned teacher(s) including the Heavenly immortals (Tian Xian), if any.
But do not expect any help from me. Since how would I know?
P.S.
I thought the entry on Hexagram 62 which took three working days to write and fine tuned was long since the sensitivities of a well known translator had to be taken into account, to prove a point.
This entry took much longer, since it could be a revelation or not of a real teaching. Over the past few weeks, I had to ponder and reread what were indicated by the ancients, the Zhen Ren and the wise.
Therefore I would appreciate if readers provide a citation to this blog entry if they intend to use the material elsewhere for their studies, website, blog, and/or for gain.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Monday, September 29, 2008
Watching heaven fall
What difference does a year make? Plenty, the distressed would cry out in unison if they have any tears left to shed.
2007 will be remembered as a great year for Asian stock markets where share prices soared, some manifold. Most of the global stock markets reached their peaks last October and many investors have made money.
Ignoring the expanding credit crunch and various signs of distress in the US housing market, rich Asian investors also loaded up on US bonds and derivatives that they hardly knew. After all, the US officials, who were supposed to be in the know, repeatedly calmed the financial markets with soothing rhetoric.
'It is okay, the damage is minimal and manageable', they seem to indicate with confidence from time to time over the months until the bail out of Bear Stearns, in March 2008. Then the real panic and urgency set in.
But during the calmer months, investment gurus and stock analysts started to predict the turning of bear markets. Sure the markets will, since what comes down must go back up again, one day.
When, has become the trillion US dollars question. Timing is related to the sincere study of Changes. Not to analyses of markets or the reading of technical charts.
The investment gurus and hedge funds have since lost much money in the ensuing meltdown of markets. Three trillion US dollars have been lost during the mid September carnage in the global stock markets immediately after the failure and bail out of US investment banks, according to Bloomberg reports. Going by that reported figure, tens of trillions would have been wiped out over the year since last October.
That is the difference, a year makes.
Just like the Asian financial crisis ten years ago, no one actually knows how to contain the collateral damage and the dire consequences that can ensue. The current financial crisis and meltdown of markets looks beyond any help or rescue.
It appears too enormous to handle, notwithstanding the prevailing collective actions of central banks and governments, daily throwing tens of billions of dollars into the financial markets to quench the insatiable thirst of banks and financial institutions, similar to filling up an abyss or a black hole.
Governments also tried to shore confidence by buying up index linked stocks and local currencies beaten down by the exodus of foreign investors. Some changed rules in the markets or moved goalposts. They eventually stopped, realizing the folly of burning up foreign reserves and using hard cash to buy ever softening stocks.
Mr. Market has been and will always be bigger than any institution or country, unless it is a closed market. Partly reminisce of the previous crisis, a decade ago.
The American people were the first to suffer in the crisis. The housing meltdown caused million(s) to be forced out of their homes.
If you happen to hear of hundreds of thousands of the middle class and the poor living in cars and a similar number recently started to live in tents, you would not have been wrong to think that such phenomena only happens in a poverty stricken third world country. The charity food kitchens in the US have been inundated with ever growing queues of the poor, jobless and hungry. Retirees fear their nest eggs of stable income from stock dividends would dwindle or curtail.
If once considered the best, the safest and biggest corporations in the US and in the world can collapse like ten pins and dominoes, where can investors hide? And the scenario looks bleaker, each passing day.
Over in Asia, natural disasters and calamity seems to be order of the day in 2008. Earthquakes and floods had killed tens of thousands. Coupled with the meltdown of their stock markets, human suffering there can also be horrendous.
Suicides caused by huge losses in the battered stock markets have been reported in various parts of Asia, and may become more common, since many investors are currently numbed, distressed and in denial. What with the huge decimation of capital where prices of once good fundamental stocks can plummet 90% or more from their record highs in 2007.
Highly geared finance and property companies are also failing in numbers in various developed Asian countries because of the credit crunch. Hedge funds with big losses are beginning to close shop.
If well established reputable banks and financial institutions in the US can fail or have to be bailed out like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Indy Mac, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, American International Group and the latest casualty on September 25, 2008, Washington Mutual Bank, with most of their ordinary and preferred shares completely worthless, what investments can be considered really safe?
When an era of investment banking, where the most talented and world highest paid financial advisers worked, has been totally erased, does anyone seriously think that the impending mother of all bail outs, the US$ 700 billion, can really resolve the massive mess, created by those once gigantic fees churning titans that had failed, and condoned by regulators and central bankers alike who slept on the job?
Does anyone really has the handle on how many tens of trillions of US dollars worth of derivatives and credit default swaps that are out there in the markets? Who insures these insurers of credit defaults, when they are asked to pay up? How does the US$ 700 billion, miniscule by comparison, begin to resolve the insurmountable problems?
However, if left entirely on its own, the financial crisis may get full blown, and its aftermath could severely affect the lives of billions, all under heaven.
Therein lies the dilemma of continued government bail outs of banks and financial institutions considered too big to fail. The contagion has already spread to Europe with the bail outs of another mortgage lender bank in England and of a well known bank in Belgium announced today. US and European bankers like to lay massive gambles, don't they?
The only ones who probably stand to gain from this mother of all bail outs would be those affected bankers who can finally offload their ‘marked to make believe’ assets and toxic debts that no fool wants anymore, in exchange for good solid cash from the US government. That would also put a stop to auditors panting down their necks, like what the ‘watchdogs’ had done over the past few reporting quarters. (In case, these bankers want to pin blame on them for their own mistakes, the auditors were just doing their professional job.) If the banks have to write down these soured assets, more of them including the big Main Street ones could fail.
With this fresh lifeline, banks would start to lend to selective customers, probably those who do not really need the loans. Then again, perhaps you have not read recent news; hoarding cash is the current favorite pastime of bankers in US and in Europe.
Only with strict regulation and constant oversight, can the mother of all bail outs likely work.
Warren Buffett had exclaimed, ‘If Congress does not help, Heaven help us', after hearing about the wrangling over the intended massive bail out. It must have been a ‘do or die’ situation. Few seemed to understand the severity of this financial crisis of gigantic proportions; since it is a once in a lifetime thingy.
However the dice falls, eventually, her taxpayers have to bail the United States of America out of the massive mess created. Call it fate, destiny, or whatever!
Chaos and Unemployment, the Yi had warned last September. In a subsequent entry last October, I had also warned about the mountain imploding and advised on how to escape forthcoming disasters.
In such times of despair, the Chinese would exclaim, ‘Tian Zai, Ren Huo’ which translates as, ‘disasters from heaven bring ruin to the people'.
Earlier this year, the Yi warned that heaven and earth will close in September 2008 and the able goes into hiding. I had cleared all my stocks in May 2008, waiting patiently for the heaven secrets or omen to unfold.
In line with the guidance of the Yi, I am now watching heaven fall. So would those one to two million adversely affected and unfortunate US citizens who have no choice but to sleep out in the open, and living in misery. There would be much more suffering before the catastrophes and great panic finally ends.
If heaven does fall, what can be done by man on earth? Since Tao has already gone into recess all under heaven, even the ShenXian (Daoist deities and immortals) can do nothing much.
And how can heaven actually help, when it is about to fall?
2007 will be remembered as a great year for Asian stock markets where share prices soared, some manifold. Most of the global stock markets reached their peaks last October and many investors have made money.
Ignoring the expanding credit crunch and various signs of distress in the US housing market, rich Asian investors also loaded up on US bonds and derivatives that they hardly knew. After all, the US officials, who were supposed to be in the know, repeatedly calmed the financial markets with soothing rhetoric.
'It is okay, the damage is minimal and manageable', they seem to indicate with confidence from time to time over the months until the bail out of Bear Stearns, in March 2008. Then the real panic and urgency set in.
But during the calmer months, investment gurus and stock analysts started to predict the turning of bear markets. Sure the markets will, since what comes down must go back up again, one day.
When, has become the trillion US dollars question. Timing is related to the sincere study of Changes. Not to analyses of markets or the reading of technical charts.
The investment gurus and hedge funds have since lost much money in the ensuing meltdown of markets. Three trillion US dollars have been lost during the mid September carnage in the global stock markets immediately after the failure and bail out of US investment banks, according to Bloomberg reports. Going by that reported figure, tens of trillions would have been wiped out over the year since last October.
That is the difference, a year makes.
Just like the Asian financial crisis ten years ago, no one actually knows how to contain the collateral damage and the dire consequences that can ensue. The current financial crisis and meltdown of markets looks beyond any help or rescue.
It appears too enormous to handle, notwithstanding the prevailing collective actions of central banks and governments, daily throwing tens of billions of dollars into the financial markets to quench the insatiable thirst of banks and financial institutions, similar to filling up an abyss or a black hole.
Governments also tried to shore confidence by buying up index linked stocks and local currencies beaten down by the exodus of foreign investors. Some changed rules in the markets or moved goalposts. They eventually stopped, realizing the folly of burning up foreign reserves and using hard cash to buy ever softening stocks.
Mr. Market has been and will always be bigger than any institution or country, unless it is a closed market. Partly reminisce of the previous crisis, a decade ago.
The American people were the first to suffer in the crisis. The housing meltdown caused million(s) to be forced out of their homes.
If you happen to hear of hundreds of thousands of the middle class and the poor living in cars and a similar number recently started to live in tents, you would not have been wrong to think that such phenomena only happens in a poverty stricken third world country. The charity food kitchens in the US have been inundated with ever growing queues of the poor, jobless and hungry. Retirees fear their nest eggs of stable income from stock dividends would dwindle or curtail.
If once considered the best, the safest and biggest corporations in the US and in the world can collapse like ten pins and dominoes, where can investors hide? And the scenario looks bleaker, each passing day.
Over in Asia, natural disasters and calamity seems to be order of the day in 2008. Earthquakes and floods had killed tens of thousands. Coupled with the meltdown of their stock markets, human suffering there can also be horrendous.
Suicides caused by huge losses in the battered stock markets have been reported in various parts of Asia, and may become more common, since many investors are currently numbed, distressed and in denial. What with the huge decimation of capital where prices of once good fundamental stocks can plummet 90% or more from their record highs in 2007.
Highly geared finance and property companies are also failing in numbers in various developed Asian countries because of the credit crunch. Hedge funds with big losses are beginning to close shop.
If well established reputable banks and financial institutions in the US can fail or have to be bailed out like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Indy Mac, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, American International Group and the latest casualty on September 25, 2008, Washington Mutual Bank, with most of their ordinary and preferred shares completely worthless, what investments can be considered really safe?
When an era of investment banking, where the most talented and world highest paid financial advisers worked, has been totally erased, does anyone seriously think that the impending mother of all bail outs, the US$ 700 billion, can really resolve the massive mess, created by those once gigantic fees churning titans that had failed, and condoned by regulators and central bankers alike who slept on the job?
Does anyone really has the handle on how many tens of trillions of US dollars worth of derivatives and credit default swaps that are out there in the markets? Who insures these insurers of credit defaults, when they are asked to pay up? How does the US$ 700 billion, miniscule by comparison, begin to resolve the insurmountable problems?
However, if left entirely on its own, the financial crisis may get full blown, and its aftermath could severely affect the lives of billions, all under heaven.
Therein lies the dilemma of continued government bail outs of banks and financial institutions considered too big to fail. The contagion has already spread to Europe with the bail outs of another mortgage lender bank in England and of a well known bank in Belgium announced today. US and European bankers like to lay massive gambles, don't they?
The only ones who probably stand to gain from this mother of all bail outs would be those affected bankers who can finally offload their ‘marked to make believe’ assets and toxic debts that no fool wants anymore, in exchange for good solid cash from the US government. That would also put a stop to auditors panting down their necks, like what the ‘watchdogs’ had done over the past few reporting quarters. (In case, these bankers want to pin blame on them for their own mistakes, the auditors were just doing their professional job.) If the banks have to write down these soured assets, more of them including the big Main Street ones could fail.
With this fresh lifeline, banks would start to lend to selective customers, probably those who do not really need the loans. Then again, perhaps you have not read recent news; hoarding cash is the current favorite pastime of bankers in US and in Europe.
Only with strict regulation and constant oversight, can the mother of all bail outs likely work.
Warren Buffett had exclaimed, ‘If Congress does not help, Heaven help us', after hearing about the wrangling over the intended massive bail out. It must have been a ‘do or die’ situation. Few seemed to understand the severity of this financial crisis of gigantic proportions; since it is a once in a lifetime thingy.
However the dice falls, eventually, her taxpayers have to bail the United States of America out of the massive mess created. Call it fate, destiny, or whatever!
Chaos and Unemployment, the Yi had warned last September. In a subsequent entry last October, I had also warned about the mountain imploding and advised on how to escape forthcoming disasters.
In such times of despair, the Chinese would exclaim, ‘Tian Zai, Ren Huo’ which translates as, ‘disasters from heaven bring ruin to the people'.
Earlier this year, the Yi warned that heaven and earth will close in September 2008 and the able goes into hiding. I had cleared all my stocks in May 2008, waiting patiently for the heaven secrets or omen to unfold.
In line with the guidance of the Yi, I am now watching heaven fall. So would those one to two million adversely affected and unfortunate US citizens who have no choice but to sleep out in the open, and living in misery. There would be much more suffering before the catastrophes and great panic finally ends.
If heaven does fall, what can be done by man on earth? Since Tao has already gone into recess all under heaven, even the ShenXian (Daoist deities and immortals) can do nothing much.
And how can heaven actually help, when it is about to fall?
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
The Zhouyi is dead right again
At the beginning of the Chinese calendar year 2007, the Yi indicated that ‘someone will steal my cow' that year. My awareness tied up with the Yi chart and an unintentional confirmation from a Quanzhen heavenly immortal indicated that the cow would be stolen on August 17, 2007 – the biggest fall in Asian stock markets in a state of panic. As blogged that year, the culprit who stole my cow was Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the US which no longer exists, today.
In my annual hexagram for 2008, the Yi indicated that ‘Heaven and Earth will close’ sometime this year. Again tying up with the Yi chart, I had told my wife and kids, my Quanzhen friend in May and subsequently that there will be big plunges in the stock markets on September 15, 2008.
Over the past few months, I have provided several hints in the blog if regular readers have taken notice.
In case, readers do not know what had happened, the following events occurred on Friday, September 12, 2008:
"A prominent blogger who writes on political issues was arrested that afternoon under a ‘draconian’ law known as the Internal Security Act enacted in the 1960s to arrest communist insurgents and detain them indefinitely without trial.
Later that night, a woman reporter of a Chinese news publication was arrested under the same Act for correctly quoting a prominent member of the ruling party who had lashed out at the Malaysian Chinese for supporting the opposition party in the elections.
The two reporters who subsequently confirmed her quote went into hiding when they heard about her arrest.
Just before midnight, an opposition female Member of Parliament was also arrested under the ISA, probably driving much fear into many bloggers and opposition MPs.
(Remember my hint about power politics?)
After a ruckus and protests over the arrests by opposition and ruling party MPs including six ministers, the government decided to release the female reporter, the following day. She has been detained for the shortest period on record under the Act – 18 hours.
The blogger and the opposition MP are still detained indefinitely.
The assumed Law Minister resigned in protest of the arrests under the ISA and hailed by the public as a man of principle and honour."
(Those interested can visit the archives of online news publications – TheStar. com.my or others - for full details.)
"Over in the US, the US treasury and other government officials were meeting with CEOs of various banks, American International Group, and interested parties. They met to try resolving the issues of fast failing financial institutions.
The meeting stretched over the weekend and ended on Sunday, September 14, 2008. The interested buyers pulled out, the US treasury refused to bail out the investment bank, Lehman Brothers, and let it go to the dogs –oops – into liquidation.
Meanwhile Bank of America took over a larger investment bank, Merrill Lynch.
The US treasury also refused to bail out AIG, the largest insurance group in the world by market capitalization.
A couple of days later, the US Federal Reserve bailed out AIG. The rest as the saying goes is history."
By including these storylines, hopefully, Yi aficionados can learn what happens, when Heaven and Earth close.
Soon, I may ask something of Yi fellows and Tao cultivators to test your in-depth knowledge on Tao and the Zhouyi. Therefore prepare yourselves, if interested.
Meanwhile the global stock and capital markets roiled in turmoil on September 15, 2008, a financial tsunami of sorts, and continuing.
Doomsayers of guru status with ‘brilliant’ hindsight emerged from closets to cast more gloomy news far into the horizon. And asked investors to hold cash!
The investors may not have any money left, if they have fully invested in those previously AAA rated 'very safe and strong' financial or other institutions that had failed.
P.S.
I realize that none of the prominent personalities in charge this year and last either in the US or in Malaysia has the charm to change fate or destiny. Otherwise they could defer the dates, by a day or two – like the Barings fall and rescue by the Bank of England governor - or like former US President Bill Clinton, even avoid an omen altogether?
In my annual hexagram for 2008, the Yi indicated that ‘Heaven and Earth will close’ sometime this year. Again tying up with the Yi chart, I had told my wife and kids, my Quanzhen friend in May and subsequently that there will be big plunges in the stock markets on September 15, 2008.
Over the past few months, I have provided several hints in the blog if regular readers have taken notice.
In case, readers do not know what had happened, the following events occurred on Friday, September 12, 2008:
"A prominent blogger who writes on political issues was arrested that afternoon under a ‘draconian’ law known as the Internal Security Act enacted in the 1960s to arrest communist insurgents and detain them indefinitely without trial.
Later that night, a woman reporter of a Chinese news publication was arrested under the same Act for correctly quoting a prominent member of the ruling party who had lashed out at the Malaysian Chinese for supporting the opposition party in the elections.
The two reporters who subsequently confirmed her quote went into hiding when they heard about her arrest.
Just before midnight, an opposition female Member of Parliament was also arrested under the ISA, probably driving much fear into many bloggers and opposition MPs.
(Remember my hint about power politics?)
After a ruckus and protests over the arrests by opposition and ruling party MPs including six ministers, the government decided to release the female reporter, the following day. She has been detained for the shortest period on record under the Act – 18 hours.
The blogger and the opposition MP are still detained indefinitely.
The assumed Law Minister resigned in protest of the arrests under the ISA and hailed by the public as a man of principle and honour."
(Those interested can visit the archives of online news publications – TheStar. com.my or others - for full details.)
"Over in the US, the US treasury and other government officials were meeting with CEOs of various banks, American International Group, and interested parties. They met to try resolving the issues of fast failing financial institutions.
The meeting stretched over the weekend and ended on Sunday, September 14, 2008. The interested buyers pulled out, the US treasury refused to bail out the investment bank, Lehman Brothers, and let it go to the dogs –oops – into liquidation.
Meanwhile Bank of America took over a larger investment bank, Merrill Lynch.
The US treasury also refused to bail out AIG, the largest insurance group in the world by market capitalization.
A couple of days later, the US Federal Reserve bailed out AIG. The rest as the saying goes is history."
By including these storylines, hopefully, Yi aficionados can learn what happens, when Heaven and Earth close.
Soon, I may ask something of Yi fellows and Tao cultivators to test your in-depth knowledge on Tao and the Zhouyi. Therefore prepare yourselves, if interested.
Meanwhile the global stock and capital markets roiled in turmoil on September 15, 2008, a financial tsunami of sorts, and continuing.
Doomsayers of guru status with ‘brilliant’ hindsight emerged from closets to cast more gloomy news far into the horizon. And asked investors to hold cash!
The investors may not have any money left, if they have fully invested in those previously AAA rated 'very safe and strong' financial or other institutions that had failed.
P.S.
I realize that none of the prominent personalities in charge this year and last either in the US or in Malaysia has the charm to change fate or destiny. Otherwise they could defer the dates, by a day or two – like the Barings fall and rescue by the Bank of England governor - or like former US President Bill Clinton, even avoid an omen altogether?
Friday, September 05, 2008
September is the month
Sometime in May/June this year, I had promised a sibling to post in my blog the month when the KLSE will face a financial tsunami of sorts.
It was not what the psychics, seers or even the ShenXian (Daoist deities and immortals) had predicted, I had told her over the phone then. It is not going to be in June, July or even August. Just wait until I blogged the month.
Life would have been much easier dealing with heaven's secrets with mum and dad, if they had been both alive. They had never asked why, just when and how to prepare for the worst.
My late mum would ask for permission to inform kin to prepare for the dangers that lie ahead. They would not resort to questioning me on my knowledge of the Yi nor 'how would I know'?–a recent question raised by another sibling.
“An obligation to explain in detail or rationalizing what will happen defeat the purpose of having access to heaven’s secrets. Doubters and skeptics will always go their own way and do their own things. No matter what you say or tell them" – when identifying which kin or close relative to tell–I had told mum.
If no one wants to listen and prepare for the worst, nothing can be done. It is the way of man.
When the holy sages and the two great Chinese sages spoke about the ways of Heaven and Earth, how many without the necessary Tao cultivation and Yi divination experience down the ages could fully comprehend that.
Probably regular readers and/or Yi aficionados may better understand the prior hints given over the past few months. Having kept my promise to blog the month, I can go back into hiding since Heaven and Earth will close shortly.
Cheerio!
P.S.
In case, readers still do not understand what had been written in a previous post in August on the hint about power-politics – the Oxford Dictionary explains the term thus: political action based on threats to use force.
Notice the recent happenings in Georgia and Bangkok?
It was not what the psychics, seers or even the ShenXian (Daoist deities and immortals) had predicted, I had told her over the phone then. It is not going to be in June, July or even August. Just wait until I blogged the month.
Life would have been much easier dealing with heaven's secrets with mum and dad, if they had been both alive. They had never asked why, just when and how to prepare for the worst.
My late mum would ask for permission to inform kin to prepare for the dangers that lie ahead. They would not resort to questioning me on my knowledge of the Yi nor 'how would I know'?–a recent question raised by another sibling.
“An obligation to explain in detail or rationalizing what will happen defeat the purpose of having access to heaven’s secrets. Doubters and skeptics will always go their own way and do their own things. No matter what you say or tell them" – when identifying which kin or close relative to tell–I had told mum.
If no one wants to listen and prepare for the worst, nothing can be done. It is the way of man.
When the holy sages and the two great Chinese sages spoke about the ways of Heaven and Earth, how many without the necessary Tao cultivation and Yi divination experience down the ages could fully comprehend that.
Probably regular readers and/or Yi aficionados may better understand the prior hints given over the past few months. Having kept my promise to blog the month, I can go back into hiding since Heaven and Earth will close shortly.
Cheerio!
P.S.
In case, readers still do not understand what had been written in a previous post in August on the hint about power-politics – the Oxford Dictionary explains the term thus: political action based on threats to use force.
Notice the recent happenings in Georgia and Bangkok?
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