Sunday, April 12, 2009

‘Green shoots’ or ‘Head fake’?

Global economists and investment strategists are currently having a field day calling the shots.

The optimists amongst them are saying there are some signs the winter ice is finally thawing and ‘green shoots’ slowly emerge from the ground this spring. While the pessimists among the lot are predicting that the economy still has a way to fall and global stock markets which had rebounded since the lows in March is actually a bear rally, a feint by Mr. Market and therefore a ‘Head Fake’.

The only difficulty is who are we the small fry going to follow? The ‘green shoots’ or the ‘head fake’ callers?

The US Federal Reserve Chairman, who probably still relies on computer programs, counts amongst those who predicted ‘green shoots’ while George Soros called the current US stock market rebound, a bear rally. Based on the annual Yi chart, both can be right or wrong; depending on the time span of each prediction. Only time will tell.

The best bet for those who are holding only cash or cash equivalent could still be ‘to sit on our hands’.

Let the Bulls and the Bears battle it out. Otherwise small fry may easily get swallowed up by the hungry great white sharks (market makers and movers) in search for food in the stormy waters, since a lot of ‘big fish’ are slowly dying out or have died after the recent financial tsunami.

Marc Faber recently predicted the S&P index will retrace by a maximum of 10% before the real rally starts. He appears to have a sixth sense like George Soros. But this time, Mr. Faber could be in for a surprise. Why?

If my annual hexagram and the Yi chart for 2009 are correct, there would be a further round of great destruction of wealth in the global stock markets.

The Chinese who have visited their ancestors’ graves this Qing Ming to pay their respects and to lament about past stock market losses should take the opportunity to sell into this rally and raise cash levels. (Your ancestors may have helped. But their powers, if any, could be rather limited.)

Be careful, there are many big fences up ahead. (Think of those fences in the Grand National in the UK, where great jumpers have had come to grief.)

Don’t say, I have not told you that.

1 comment:

ngchuanling said...

Dear Sir,
With due respect, you say "If my annual hexagram and the Yi chart for 2009 are correct, there would be a further round of great destruction of wealth in the global stock markets."
May you please tell enlighten us more about your "annual hexagram and the Yi for 2009 ".
BTW, I am green in I-Ching and always looking forward to read your blog!
Thank you, Sir.