2006 was a good year for investors in low liners in the KLSE. Friends and kin who followed my tip from the Yi to buy plenty of GT shares near its lowest price probably made between a five to sevenfold profit that year. They could have made more if they had listened and bought back the shares when its price tumbled by half before the counter went back up once again.
2007 was more difficult for small investors to make money, easier for the funds because index linked stocks flew. The greedy would have lost a fortune early that year brought about by the Chinese stock market plunge in late February and early March. By the second week of April, the GT shares have gone up twenty fold from its lowest price ever. The price more than doubled from what I had bought back in late March. Did I make the twenty fold profits? Yes, but not all my money was riding on it, this time round.
Of course it would be difficult for me to find a good and sound stock in 2008 to buy since I do not look for thirty to fifty percent gains in a stock investment. KLSE investors can achieved those 30 to 50 percentage gains easily in 2006, 2007 and probably in 2008. Yes, you read it correctly, even in 2008 despite the huge early setback for many investors. Why?
At this time, there are no buyers in the stock market as indicated by a stock analyst in a recent newspaper article. The daily values traded, if you have noticed, have at times dwindled to twenty percent of 2007 top daily trades. (Remember my suggestions in the entry to ‘Follow the money’?)
When there are no buyers for stocks, what does it mean? It means that stocks are at their lowest. Refer to my entry on the strategies of the father of modern management during ancient times indicated by Sima Qian, if interested.
Half of my investments bought back recently at their lows had already rebounded more than fifty percent while some investors hummed and hawed, predicting impending crises in popular chat boxes, trying to be ShenXian (Daoist deities and immortals).
When these ‘ShenXian’ and their followers realized that the market has flown and left them behind, they will panic buy at much higher prices in order to save face and to brag about their relative small gains at a later date.
Last year, a Quanzhen heavenly immortal had indirectly confirmed my Yi chart for 2007. This year, Quanzhen heavenly immortals have indirectly confirmed my Yi prognostications for investments in the KLSE. Read together with my interpretation of the annual hexagram for 2008, I look forward to an eight to ten fold gain in some of my investments.
My annual hexagram alone provided the reason why in an earlier entry on investments, I had indicated that 2008 could be a better year than 2007 and even 2006 – where a sevenfold gain was made.
Since I cannot lead this year, kin and close friends can keep a look out for my name in the top thirty shareholders list of public quoted companies in the KLSE. It could be the ones that will provide a tenfold gain in 2008.
Who knows? I am not telling, neither would the Yi and the Quanzhen heavenly immortals.
Showing posts with label GT shares. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GT shares. Show all posts
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Sunday, December 23, 2007
2007 Bull Run not too kind to retail investors
While the KLSE composite index has risen by about 30% for 2007, I understand that quite a number of retail investors have lost money or are holding huge paper losses in this Bull Run. It is not surprising if we survey the number of low liner stocks across the board that are hovering around or had closed at 52 weeks lows, last Friday, December 21.
I counted about 116 of them which include index linked stocks. A majority of losers were from the Mesdaq board. If we include stocks across the boards that have fallen by fifty percent or more from their 52 weeks high, the number would increased to about 250 counters, representing roughly 25% of stocks quoted in the KLSE.
Retail investors who had insisted to ‘stand in the middle of the mountain’ in October by averaging down low liners or hold onto stocks, have probably found themselves free falling into the chasm of Kun / Earth after the mountain imploded. Whether the fall (of their stocks) has hit finally rock bottom or not into the depths of Earth is quite impossible to tell. (Refer my entry on ‘Stand not in the middle of the mountain’, October 13) And there could be more losses around the corner.
However when the low and second liner stocks hit rock bottom, there could be a rebound. There is always such hope.
Take for example, the Australian quoted company – Centro Properties Group – which bought 700 US shopping malls in 2005 and 2006 for US$ 9 billion. The Company lost 86 percent of its market value within two days this week as it struggles to renegotiate debt. Its market value had fallen from A$ 4.8 billion to A$ 680 million during the rout. A day or two later, its shares rose 63% after the company announced plans to sell down properties. (Source – Bloomberg.com)
Weaker investors who had bought the stock just before the plunge could have suffered a heart attack. So could someone who had sold the stock when it hit rock bottom. Does this Centro example not remind us of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 where multimillionaires literally turned into paupers overnight?
An investment analyst from an established bank had the cheek to revise down the Centro stock to A$ 1+ from his earlier recommended target price of A$ 7+. So much for professionalism, don’t you think? This is a good example of a Xiao Ren (inferior man) in my books and someone to avoid at all costs. Since those who bought the particular stock based on his earlier recommendation of A$ 7 would have lost a ‘bomb’.
For those retail investors or traders who had weathered the major upheavals in the KLSE in 2007, expect more turbulence next year.
Meanwhile I am searching for stock investments for 2008 that could double or more in value by bottom picking. How? By doing the necessary homework and consulting the Yi, of course. It would not prove difficult if the bulls and foreign fund managers decide to storm back to the KLSE in time for the Chinese New Year rally.
Obviously it would be nigh impossible to find a twenty fold increase in share price again, for example the GT stock, unless they have gone dirt cheap. By then many a retail investor would have been busted.
I counted about 116 of them which include index linked stocks. A majority of losers were from the Mesdaq board. If we include stocks across the boards that have fallen by fifty percent or more from their 52 weeks high, the number would increased to about 250 counters, representing roughly 25% of stocks quoted in the KLSE.
Retail investors who had insisted to ‘stand in the middle of the mountain’ in October by averaging down low liners or hold onto stocks, have probably found themselves free falling into the chasm of Kun / Earth after the mountain imploded. Whether the fall (of their stocks) has hit finally rock bottom or not into the depths of Earth is quite impossible to tell. (Refer my entry on ‘Stand not in the middle of the mountain’, October 13) And there could be more losses around the corner.
However when the low and second liner stocks hit rock bottom, there could be a rebound. There is always such hope.
Take for example, the Australian quoted company – Centro Properties Group – which bought 700 US shopping malls in 2005 and 2006 for US$ 9 billion. The Company lost 86 percent of its market value within two days this week as it struggles to renegotiate debt. Its market value had fallen from A$ 4.8 billion to A$ 680 million during the rout. A day or two later, its shares rose 63% after the company announced plans to sell down properties. (Source – Bloomberg.com)
Weaker investors who had bought the stock just before the plunge could have suffered a heart attack. So could someone who had sold the stock when it hit rock bottom. Does this Centro example not remind us of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 where multimillionaires literally turned into paupers overnight?
An investment analyst from an established bank had the cheek to revise down the Centro stock to A$ 1+ from his earlier recommended target price of A$ 7+. So much for professionalism, don’t you think? This is a good example of a Xiao Ren (inferior man) in my books and someone to avoid at all costs. Since those who bought the particular stock based on his earlier recommendation of A$ 7 would have lost a ‘bomb’.
For those retail investors or traders who had weathered the major upheavals in the KLSE in 2007, expect more turbulence next year.
Meanwhile I am searching for stock investments for 2008 that could double or more in value by bottom picking. How? By doing the necessary homework and consulting the Yi, of course. It would not prove difficult if the bulls and foreign fund managers decide to storm back to the KLSE in time for the Chinese New Year rally.
Obviously it would be nigh impossible to find a twenty fold increase in share price again, for example the GT stock, unless they have gone dirt cheap. By then many a retail investor would have been busted.
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
The KLSE and China's stock market
Not only does the Yi chart provide a good guide to the Malaysian stock market, it appears that the chart can also be applied to China’s stock market. It is none too surprising given that the Zhouyi originated in China more than 3,000 years ago.
2006 had been a good year of recovery for both the Malaysian and Chinese stock markets after floundering in the doldrums for a few years. Now both their stock markets considered part of the emerging markets are playing catch up to the Asian stock markets where the so called dragon economies are booming. China's stock markets are the top gainers in Asia this year followed by the KLSE. The Malaysian Ringgit also moves in line with the Chinese Yuan.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets of China soared to new records high last week like ‘flying dragons in the heavens’ notwithstanding prominent personalities issuing futile warnings to Chinese investors of a rising stock bubble. (Refer to The bull in China entry.)
After the new highs were recorded, her government tripled the stamp duty (a form of tax) on the value of shares transactions from 0.1% to 0.3% to temper the velocity of trades. The Shanghai market fell 6.5% following the surprise announcement.
On Monday June 4th China also advised her people to avoid speculative stocks and to invest in blue chips. Yet foreign funds took the opportunity to sell down her markets the same day and switched their funds to Hong Kong and other Asian countries. With heavy selling, the Shanghai market fell 8.26% while the Hang Seng went up higher. The sell down continued on Tuesday and the Shanghai stock market fell another 7.25% to 3,404.14 points before closing the morning off lows. However the market rebounded in the afternoon and closed the day 2.63% higher at 3,767.10 points! A quick turn around of 10% within the day. This indicates that China knows clearly what she has to do for her people, no matter what the analysts and experts think or say.
Probably these same analysts and experts have long forgotten that a majority of Chinese had to struggle to live on their minuscule USD 30 monthly pay, just twenty years ago. China had come a long way since and having enriched her people (particularly those living in the cities and urban areas), has just started to educate them on cardinal virtues (read Confucian ethics) and the ways of markets.
Meanwhile Malaysian investors may not quite notice the small rally that started on Monday May 28th until it gathered momentum last Thursday and Friday. A shortened May rally that overspills into the month of June is better than nothing.
One was rather quiet and did not want to mention that the warnings the previous week by the so called ShenXian cannot interfere with the ‘Flying Dragon in the heavens’.
From experience, most ‘ShenXian’ cannot disrupt the flow of the Yi chart and/or Yi prognostications with their words and actions unless their charisma is exceptionally strong. (Think our former Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohammad and former US President Bill Clinton.) This aside note may prove useful to Yi aficionados in their studies.
The KLSE has drifted sideways and lower for almost two months after the highs reached in early April with liquidity quickly drying up. The GT shares (remember?) had gone up almost twenty fold in April from its record low reached in end 2005. One had bought back some GT shares at slightly higher prices than those sold before the April run up. Since it was time to sell shares in early April according to the Yi chart I sold the GT shares near its 7-years high.
The share price has fallen almost 20% from its recent peak when I bought back some before consulting the Zhouyi and was told off by the Oracle for using great power (the money to buy the shares) without asking what is right. The reason for the reprimand - the shares fell another 15% (making a total of 35%) over the next few weeks before starting to rebound last week. The GT shares took a mere three days to recover 29% from its recent lows.
Does this example not go to show that the KLSE is resilient and that investors may not have to wait too long for good low liner stocks, especially those double checked with the Zhouyi, to rebound or the market to continue its rally in a bull run? It also demonstrates the importance of taking profits which can disappear in a wisp of smoke – like those witnessed end February and in April 2007, and in the recent falls of the Chinese stock markets.
With the May rally straddling into June, I wish KLSE investors good luck! Do not forget to take your profits, if you are happy with the gains. Bulls also need to take breathers, at times.
Long may the KLSE and the Chinese bulls run in 2007!
2006 had been a good year of recovery for both the Malaysian and Chinese stock markets after floundering in the doldrums for a few years. Now both their stock markets considered part of the emerging markets are playing catch up to the Asian stock markets where the so called dragon economies are booming. China's stock markets are the top gainers in Asia this year followed by the KLSE. The Malaysian Ringgit also moves in line with the Chinese Yuan.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets of China soared to new records high last week like ‘flying dragons in the heavens’ notwithstanding prominent personalities issuing futile warnings to Chinese investors of a rising stock bubble. (Refer to The bull in China entry.)
After the new highs were recorded, her government tripled the stamp duty (a form of tax) on the value of shares transactions from 0.1% to 0.3% to temper the velocity of trades. The Shanghai market fell 6.5% following the surprise announcement.
On Monday June 4th China also advised her people to avoid speculative stocks and to invest in blue chips. Yet foreign funds took the opportunity to sell down her markets the same day and switched their funds to Hong Kong and other Asian countries. With heavy selling, the Shanghai market fell 8.26% while the Hang Seng went up higher. The sell down continued on Tuesday and the Shanghai stock market fell another 7.25% to 3,404.14 points before closing the morning off lows. However the market rebounded in the afternoon and closed the day 2.63% higher at 3,767.10 points! A quick turn around of 10% within the day. This indicates that China knows clearly what she has to do for her people, no matter what the analysts and experts think or say.
Probably these same analysts and experts have long forgotten that a majority of Chinese had to struggle to live on their minuscule USD 30 monthly pay, just twenty years ago. China had come a long way since and having enriched her people (particularly those living in the cities and urban areas), has just started to educate them on cardinal virtues (read Confucian ethics) and the ways of markets.
Meanwhile Malaysian investors may not quite notice the small rally that started on Monday May 28th until it gathered momentum last Thursday and Friday. A shortened May rally that overspills into the month of June is better than nothing.
One was rather quiet and did not want to mention that the warnings the previous week by the so called ShenXian cannot interfere with the ‘Flying Dragon in the heavens’.
From experience, most ‘ShenXian’ cannot disrupt the flow of the Yi chart and/or Yi prognostications with their words and actions unless their charisma is exceptionally strong. (Think our former Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohammad and former US President Bill Clinton.) This aside note may prove useful to Yi aficionados in their studies.
The KLSE has drifted sideways and lower for almost two months after the highs reached in early April with liquidity quickly drying up. The GT shares (remember?) had gone up almost twenty fold in April from its record low reached in end 2005. One had bought back some GT shares at slightly higher prices than those sold before the April run up. Since it was time to sell shares in early April according to the Yi chart I sold the GT shares near its 7-years high.
The share price has fallen almost 20% from its recent peak when I bought back some before consulting the Zhouyi and was told off by the Oracle for using great power (the money to buy the shares) without asking what is right. The reason for the reprimand - the shares fell another 15% (making a total of 35%) over the next few weeks before starting to rebound last week. The GT shares took a mere three days to recover 29% from its recent lows.
Does this example not go to show that the KLSE is resilient and that investors may not have to wait too long for good low liner stocks, especially those double checked with the Zhouyi, to rebound or the market to continue its rally in a bull run? It also demonstrates the importance of taking profits which can disappear in a wisp of smoke – like those witnessed end February and in April 2007, and in the recent falls of the Chinese stock markets.
With the May rally straddling into June, I wish KLSE investors good luck! Do not forget to take your profits, if you are happy with the gains. Bulls also need to take breathers, at times.
Long may the KLSE and the Chinese bulls run in 2007!
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