Sunday, January 13, 2008

Troops ‘surge’

In an entry early December, I had blogged that upon consultation with the Yi, an advance force was sent into battle in the KLSE. In the next few entries after that, I had mentioned: my main troops are waiting for the right timing; the foreign funds and the bulls may come into the stock market in time for the Chinese New Year rally; the KLSE and the Chinese stock markets may plunge in the early trading days of January 2008. In the recent past, I had also suggested some trading strategies – ‘simple arithmetic’ and ‘follow the money’.

From recent feedbacks, apparently some regular readers have ignored whatever mentioned in this blog. They played their own strategies, hoping they could strike it rich. If money can be made from the markets or investments so easily, no one needs to work. While those who had struck it rich through property investments always write about or mention “location, location and location”, they also made huge losses because of wrong timing. There are many good examples of that, I am sure, in your part of the world and especially now in the US.

As a consolation for some readers cum stock market investors, I understand that retail players in the Chinese stock markets had also lost much money during the falls over the past two months. Remember that the KLSE and the Chinese stock markets including Hong Kong had a Bull Run in 2007. From experience, people can still lose money in a Bull Run because of bad timing.

One of the main reasons why I choose to follow the Yi is because I am told the timing of the ups and downs of the stock market(s) and other investments. These timings are blogged before the occurrences of such events.

There is no harm if readers want to try out their own strategies, but try not to lose that shirt by being too presumptuous or unduly confident when markets go against us. No one can be bigger than a market, not even Government(s) or Central Banks, let alone small fry like us. (Think of property, commodities, and global financial – stock and currency – markets crises.)

As expected, the global stock markets did plunge during the early trading days of 2008. The KLSE was affected to a certain extent but it broke new records high from January 7 onwards with buying from foreign funds and bulls. If investors in the KLSE have not noticed, the average daily money inflows to the stock market have tripled in the past week compared to those in December. On Friday, January 11, the value traded exceeded 4 billion ringgit.

In line with the ‘follow the money’ strategy, my troops have ‘surged’ to join the vanguard in the battle with the hopes that there will be a Chinese New Year rally. The Yi chart for 2008 indicates that there will be one.

One of the stocks bought back during December has gone up by thirty percent – almost to the price where I cut loss in September 2007 to hold cash (refer to the ‘simple arithmetic’ entry if interested).

Since ‘man plans, heaven ordains’, I have followed the Yi in buying another two selected stocks with the troops ‘surge’. Adequate food and ammunition will be provided by the ‘enemy’ (the bears and stale bulls) in their territory, each time they give up further ground or retreat from the stock market.

Therefore if the prevailing trade momentum in the KLSE continues unabated, expect further reports of troop surges.

The stocks analysts who had been calling for caution or for sells in the KLSE last month have suddenly turned bullish. After being wrong footed for the past few months, these professionals better be right, this time round. That is if they still value their reputation or their jobs!

Note: I wonder if Yi diviners can see the subtle difference(s) between the troops surge in Iraq and what was written in this entry. If some still cannot – think of Yi timing, and the Art of War (Sunzi).

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