Friday, June 16, 2006

Do not chase after your horse (3)

If some fellow students of the Book of Changes have not realized it by now, this series of entries serve as a real time case study of an oracle. The series will deal or have dealt with cycles of change, timing, and purpose of divination, Yi’s guidance, and implementation by a diviner. Obviously, we have to assume that the writer is sincere in the divination which led to an accurate oracle, the interpretation was correct, and the follow-up actions will lead to expected results.

In case any doubts arise on the accuracy of update reports, friends and relatives who follow closely on the GT shares frequent this blog too. Whether they will follow the timing of when to buy or when to sell the GT shares will be entirely up to them for me to remain blameless. They cannot keep on expecting the writer to create luck for them as one often did over the past several years, telling them when to buy what shares and when to sell them before the expected plunges (Think cycles.).

Daoists and Yi aficionados would understand changes and cycles of change. In time cycles, what goes up will come down and what comes down will eventually go up again unless the market is dead. ‘People will die’ (literally or ‘those who have lost everything’) but markets will always remain. (Think Asian financial crisis, and/or the Information Technology Bubble.)

When the share market plunges, it will rise again. The million dollar question is when.

To answer this question, armies of professional analysts will do their homework and write convincing reports for users with the hopes that they will hit the right timing and become well sought after. Sadly, often analysts are the first to go in a freefall market. Next to go will be the managers of big funds, after they have lost billions. Followed by punters who have lost their shirts and ‘died’? The remaining ones will be those who can afford to hold on to their shares or those holding cash.

We often see that when the market plunges, analyst reports will indicate that the market has further to fall; and when the market is on an uptrend, they will say that it may fly. The worst that can ever happen if their predictions go awry is that analysts lose their jobs and some money – if they had believed their own reports and punted on some shares.

Therefore it is advisable for I Ching diviners who obtain accurate oracles and can correctly interpret the Yi’s answers to follow the prognostications, rather than advice given by mortals (say, analysts or fund managers).

The Yi can provide the answer (s) to the timing of a cycle that is when to buy and when to sell, if diviners fully understand the prognostication (s) and time cycles. (Hints have been given in a number of entries.)

Meanwhile, as expected (indicated by the Yi earlier), the share markets are rebounding. From hindsight, the analysts will spin the usual stories such as the expected increase of US interest rates has already been discounted by the markets. Pity those who had read their reports and panic-stricken had disposed of their shares at depressed prices over the past few days.

Well, it is only money. But how much can they afford to lose before they become wiser? During times of uncertainty, it may be worth your while to pay for a Yi consultation. Do not be ‘penny wise, pound foolish’. If your investments (intended or invested) are huge, seek out the best I Ching diviners available.

As an update, the GT shares had been hovering around 28/29 for a few days and have gone up to 31.5 at the close today. One expects more gains next week. We shall see what happens then, shall we?

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