Thursday, June 08, 2006

Do not chase after your horse

Well, the month of May has come and gone. And one has sold down the shares to realize some gains; to avoid the ‘Arrogant dragon will have cause to repent’ top line of Qian and settle down to watch World Cup soccer. A major portion of the GT shares have been sold around 40, with less than 20 % held back as stock.

The fivefold target of 50 (it will be easier to understand with numbers than semantics) did not materialize because of the fumbling by regulators during the first two weeks of May. The regulating authorities kept shifting the goalpost by tightening the rules just when the share market was getting hot. Their repetitive actions caused a general loss of confidence and billions of ringgit in market capitalization was lost. Apparently they seemed not to understand (or care about) market sentiments and why foreign fund managers stayed away for so long. Countries should think twice before they appoint theorists as heads of regulating bodies. They fumble more often than not, and probably do not realize the dire consequences of their actions or ‘leaks’ until the markets react. When real damage has been done to the markets, their subsequent removal or resignations could be too little, too late then.

That is why the world respects Alan Greenspan because he kept everyone guessing (including Governments) until his justified reactions to inflation by increasing or lowering interest rates. He did not have to show off his power to regulate the US economy. And what he did, in a way, affected world economies and financial markets too. Through his balanced actions, perhaps Greenspan understands Tao and the Center.

After the expected recent falls, one consulted the I Ching yesterday about buying back some GT shares. Its price has fallen to about 30. The Book of Changes answered with Hexagram 38 Kui / Opposition with the bottom line changing and a resultant Hexagram 64 Wei Ji / Before Completion:

The Judgment:
Opposition. In small matters, good fortune.

The first line:
Remorse disappears. If you lose your horse, do not run after it; it will come back of its own accord. When you see evil people, guard yourself against mistakes.

Well, in this entry one will not disclose what one will do in the next few days with the GT shares, after obtaining the Yi’s guidance. Perhaps readers can try their hand in the interpretation of the oracle, and ponder what you will do in my place; to purchase more, or do nothing, or to sell the remaining stock.

Remember there is money at stake; a wrong decision/action can lead to losses or lost opportunities.

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