Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Ancient wisdom on trade (2)

“There must be farmers to produce food, men to extract the wealth of mountains and marshes, artisans to process these things and merchant to circulate them. There is no need to wait for government orders: each man will play his part, doing his best to get what he desires. Cheap goods will go where they fetch more, while expensive goods will make men search for cheap ones. When all work willingly at their trades, just as water flows ceaselessly downhill day and night, things will appear unsought and people will produce them without being asked. For clearly this accords with the Way and is keeping with nature.

The Book of Zhou says: “Without farmers, food will be scarce; without artisans, goods will be scarce; without merchants, the three precious things will disappear; without men to open up the mountains and marshes, there will be a shortage of wealth.”

When the Patriarch Lu Shang (Jiang Taigong) was given Yingchu as his fief, the land was swampy and brackish and sparsely inhabited; but he encouraged the women to work, developed skilled occupations and opened up trade in fish and salt, so that men and goods poured in from every side. Soon the state of Chi was supplying the whole world with caps, belts, clothes and shoes, and the states between the Eastern Sea and Mount Tai paid respectful homage to it.”
(Shiji – Records of the Historian – [YH / GY])

People may wonder why, but for more than three thousand years, the Chinese were taught how to trade.

Buy low, sell high to make some money. How? Look back at what Chi Jan (during the Spring and Autumn period) said in the first entry.

Simply put, buy shares when no one wants any, and sell the shares when everyone rushes to buy them. The shares may not be bought at the lowest price or sold at the highest, but we should be able to make some gains and generate wealth for most. It is a trade that can be learned from the Ancients.

Saturday, June 24, 2006

Do not chase after your horse (5)

I chanced upon this report in this morning and would like to share it with readers. Extracts from CNBC Market Dispatches Jun 23 2006 4.40 pm ET:

"Markets may react calmly when the Fed raises rates next week. A big hedge fund is under investigation.

The Dow Jones industrials closed down about 30 points, or 0.3%, at 10,989. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was off 1 point to 1,245, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.5 points to 2,121.

All eyes in the financial markets will focus next week on the Federal Reserve, which almost certainly will raise short-term interest rates on Wednesday afternoon.

Analysts say the stock market may react calmly to Wednesday's rate increase for two reasons:
All of the financial markets are assuming the rate increase is a certainty.
• The second quarter will end on Friday, followed by a long Fourth of July weekend. Volume is likely to be very weak both on June 30 and again on July 3.

The recent sell-off that started May 10 seems to have ended. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 closed June 13 at a low of 14,218.60, a 614-point loss. In New York, the Dow bottomed that day at 10,653.23, then rebounded more than 50 points at the close and added more than 300 points in the next two days.

Since then, none of the major indexes -- the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq plus major foreign indexes like the Nikkei -- have come close to testing the lows reached either on June 13 or June 14. The Nikkei, in fact, is up nearly 6.4% since June 13. The Dow is up 2.6%, and the Nasdaq is up 2.4%.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating renowned hedge fund .... for possible insider trading, The New York Times reported Friday, citing government officials briefed on the case. Regulators are looking into 18 occasions of suspicious trading, the paper said. In one case the hedge fund made $18 million investing in companies that later announced a major merger." (One omitted the name of the hedge fund for obvious reasons.)

Even US market analysts now seemed to agree to what has already been predicted or indicated earlier in this series. (Crosscheck those sentences in bold to the past entries of the series and the entry on what will happen in the month of May.)

Perhaps by following this case study, even those sceptical about Yi divinations would change their minds about the Book of Changes?

Or perhaps they may better understand why the Ancients indicated that the Yi relates to Tao and why without going out of the home, they can foreknow world events. The mysteries of the Zhouyi and Tao are indeed profound. No?

Friday, June 23, 2006

Do not chase after your horse (4)

While the shares analysts still say the market has yet to bottom out, as expected, our share market closed higher this week. The KL Composite Index closed highest for a fortnight ending Friday June 23, 2006.

The GT shares price climbed to 37 before persistent selling by ‘stale bulls’ and profit taking took it to a shade lower close.

Quite a number of Malaysians have started to visit the Blog; therefore one cannot reveal the exact closing price here. Otherwise they can easily catch on to which shares are discussed. One is discussing a case study on Yi divination, and not to give away free tips to all readers on how the particular share will perform in the days to come, before the horse bolts away.

In the meantime, one tends to the horse and ensures everything is alright with it. If you do not take good care of your own horse, it could run away and keep on running, never to return.

For the past several days, by coincidence, some strange things have happened. The wall clock in the lounge had gone haywire and is going faster each day – at the moment, running 2 hours ahead of time. It was a gift from my late father, and I do not really want to replace it. Last week, the timer of the refrigerator broke down and had to be replaced. Thereafter the timer of the washing machine jammed and we are currently waiting for a replacement. Hey, they are all related to timing.

Just in case, some one out there is powerful enough to do these things and try to upset the timing of Yi’s prognostication, be very careful. From experience, somehow one enjoys some heavenly protection. You may not fully understand the powers of Heaven and Tao; and the cause and effect of what you have been or are doing.

Following what the Singaporeans like to say: Don’t Play, Play! (A quote popularized by a Singaporean comedian which means, ‘Do not fool around’ with me.) This is fair warning to those who has intent to injure or harm others.

Well, in the first line of Kui / Opposition, the Yi has also indicated evil people and to guard against mistakes. While the interpretation of evil people can denote that of market manipulators in this case, it can also mean terrorists or those who have every intention to hurt people or the market by devious means. Therefore one has to be careful, lest one gets injured.

With the presence of more Malaysian readers, one will not predict how the market or GT shares will perform next week. That would involve giving away ‘secrets’, and the Image says:

Above fire; below, the lake: The image of Opposition. Thus amid all fellowship the Junzi retains his individuality.

Enough said. Please stay tune for further updates and the unfolding of the Oracle.

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Ancient wisdom on trade

When King Gou Jian of Yue was in desperate straits on Mount Kuaichi, he followed the advice of Fan Li and Chi Jan. Chi Jan said:

One who knows how to compete prepares in advance; one who understands seasonal needs knows commodities; and a grasp of these two things enables him to understand the whole market.

Each year is dominated by an ‘element’. Metal means a good harvest, water a flood, wood a crop failure, and fire a drought. In times of drought, invest in boats; in times of flood, invest in carriages. This is the principle to follow.”
(Think cycles.)
[Records of the Historian]

Ancient wisdom is not difficult to understand or follow, but at times some people like to do it, their way. (Think bypaths.)

They invest or trade when things are rather expensive and look for ‘bigger fools’ to chase the commodity or share prices higher. Such events are not uncommon in commodities and shares trading. Many like to buy high to sell higher. And more often than not, they get ‘burnt’. Unfortunately, most of these types of investors never learn.

Friday, June 16, 2006

Do not chase after your horse (3)

If some fellow students of the Book of Changes have not realized it by now, this series of entries serve as a real time case study of an oracle. The series will deal or have dealt with cycles of change, timing, and purpose of divination, Yi’s guidance, and implementation by a diviner. Obviously, we have to assume that the writer is sincere in the divination which led to an accurate oracle, the interpretation was correct, and the follow-up actions will lead to expected results.

In case any doubts arise on the accuracy of update reports, friends and relatives who follow closely on the GT shares frequent this blog too. Whether they will follow the timing of when to buy or when to sell the GT shares will be entirely up to them for me to remain blameless. They cannot keep on expecting the writer to create luck for them as one often did over the past several years, telling them when to buy what shares and when to sell them before the expected plunges (Think cycles.).

Daoists and Yi aficionados would understand changes and cycles of change. In time cycles, what goes up will come down and what comes down will eventually go up again unless the market is dead. ‘People will die’ (literally or ‘those who have lost everything’) but markets will always remain. (Think Asian financial crisis, and/or the Information Technology Bubble.)

When the share market plunges, it will rise again. The million dollar question is when.

To answer this question, armies of professional analysts will do their homework and write convincing reports for users with the hopes that they will hit the right timing and become well sought after. Sadly, often analysts are the first to go in a freefall market. Next to go will be the managers of big funds, after they have lost billions. Followed by punters who have lost their shirts and ‘died’? The remaining ones will be those who can afford to hold on to their shares or those holding cash.

We often see that when the market plunges, analyst reports will indicate that the market has further to fall; and when the market is on an uptrend, they will say that it may fly. The worst that can ever happen if their predictions go awry is that analysts lose their jobs and some money – if they had believed their own reports and punted on some shares.

Therefore it is advisable for I Ching diviners who obtain accurate oracles and can correctly interpret the Yi’s answers to follow the prognostications, rather than advice given by mortals (say, analysts or fund managers).

The Yi can provide the answer (s) to the timing of a cycle that is when to buy and when to sell, if diviners fully understand the prognostication (s) and time cycles. (Hints have been given in a number of entries.)

Meanwhile, as expected (indicated by the Yi earlier), the share markets are rebounding. From hindsight, the analysts will spin the usual stories such as the expected increase of US interest rates has already been discounted by the markets. Pity those who had read their reports and panic-stricken had disposed of their shares at depressed prices over the past few days.

Well, it is only money. But how much can they afford to lose before they become wiser? During times of uncertainty, it may be worth your while to pay for a Yi consultation. Do not be ‘penny wise, pound foolish’. If your investments (intended or invested) are huge, seek out the best I Ching diviners available.

As an update, the GT shares had been hovering around 28/29 for a few days and have gone up to 31.5 at the close today. One expects more gains next week. We shall see what happens then, shall we?

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Do not chase after your horse (2)

Just a brief note on what has happened. The Asian stock markets fell on Thursday in tandem with the US market in anticipation of the rise in US interest rates. On the same day, our former Prime Minister’s publicized criticism of his successor dampened the KLSE (Bursa Malaysia) even more.

In line with the Yi’s oracle, one has bought back some GT shares on Thursday and on Friday at an average price of 28. This price represents about a 30% discount from the price, one sold the shares at a week or two ago. (The reasons for the sale were given in the earlier entry.)

If you have interpreted the oracle differently, that is either to do nothing or dispose of the remaining stocks; you may have lost an opportunity to make some more money.

One has purchased back half of what has been sold and may buy a bit more on Monday. In line with the oracle, one expects a rebound of the share market and in particular the GT shares shortly. This time the GT shares may reach the target of 50 or even exceed it.

There will be a further entry to explain the reasons for my interpretation later on. If you have interpreted it the same way as I did, feel free to drop in to comment and share your understanding of the oracle.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Do not chase after your horse

Well, the month of May has come and gone. And one has sold down the shares to realize some gains; to avoid the ‘Arrogant dragon will have cause to repent’ top line of Qian and settle down to watch World Cup soccer. A major portion of the GT shares have been sold around 40, with less than 20 % held back as stock.

The fivefold target of 50 (it will be easier to understand with numbers than semantics) did not materialize because of the fumbling by regulators during the first two weeks of May. The regulating authorities kept shifting the goalpost by tightening the rules just when the share market was getting hot. Their repetitive actions caused a general loss of confidence and billions of ringgit in market capitalization was lost. Apparently they seemed not to understand (or care about) market sentiments and why foreign fund managers stayed away for so long. Countries should think twice before they appoint theorists as heads of regulating bodies. They fumble more often than not, and probably do not realize the dire consequences of their actions or ‘leaks’ until the markets react. When real damage has been done to the markets, their subsequent removal or resignations could be too little, too late then.

That is why the world respects Alan Greenspan because he kept everyone guessing (including Governments) until his justified reactions to inflation by increasing or lowering interest rates. He did not have to show off his power to regulate the US economy. And what he did, in a way, affected world economies and financial markets too. Through his balanced actions, perhaps Greenspan understands Tao and the Center.

After the expected recent falls, one consulted the I Ching yesterday about buying back some GT shares. Its price has fallen to about 30. The Book of Changes answered with Hexagram 38 Kui / Opposition with the bottom line changing and a resultant Hexagram 64 Wei Ji / Before Completion:

The Judgment:
Opposition. In small matters, good fortune.

The first line:
Remorse disappears. If you lose your horse, do not run after it; it will come back of its own accord. When you see evil people, guard yourself against mistakes.

Well, in this entry one will not disclose what one will do in the next few days with the GT shares, after obtaining the Yi’s guidance. Perhaps readers can try their hand in the interpretation of the oracle, and ponder what you will do in my place; to purchase more, or do nothing, or to sell the remaining stock.

Remember there is money at stake; a wrong decision/action can lead to losses or lost opportunities.

Monday, June 05, 2006

The Golden Light

Sitting still
The shivering starts
Immortals sing
A quiet heart

A breath drawn in
Moves down to Earth
Reeling in the essence
Flows backwards up to Heaven

Heat from the sun
Melts flying snow
Rising steam from bubbling water
Keeps one from the cold

The square inch lights up
Banish the darkness
Forms and emptiness vanish
Only bright clouds remain

White lights
Reds and blues
Purple shades
The Golden Light

Outside, the birds started chirping
With sweat dripping
It was really nothing,
Just a midsummer night’s dream, again.

Friday, June 02, 2006

Have Qi will travel?

There are probably many methods available to develop the natural Qi (breath / energy) flows within our bodies, but one has only heard of how the Chinese develop Qi and acquire more from nature through martial arts like Taijiquan, Qigong, and Neigong, which involve various levels of breath control. And the backward flow meditation which according to Lu Dongbin was known as the Circulation of the Light during the times of Laozi and Guan Yinshi (c 550 BC).

From discussions with a few Taijiquan experts, a Qigong expert, some practitioners of advanced meditation, and from personal experience, it appears that the backward flow meditation could be the fastest method to develop and to acquire additional Qi. While the martial artist(s) may practise the art a decade or more before he or she can feel the Qi flows, a practitioner of the backward flow meditation may feel the flowing Qi within a few years of practice, when both are at rest (that is not during or immediately after their respective practices).

For those practitioners and martial artists who wish to strengthen their existing Qi, if they feel it is weak, they can try these ‘methods’ (obtained through my own contemplation) which one has found to be useful:

Think about your Qi.

If you still cannot feel the Qi flows, think about it at nine (9) p.m. your local time.

The Qi flows will appear stronger at certain times of the day. Note the particular times down for your own study and understanding.

If you read an article on Qi in the web or elsewhere and the Qi starts to flow spontaneously, then your Qi is strong and flowing 24/7. If your eyelids feel heavy and cannot seem to lift up because of the Qi flows, then the Qi is mature. If too mature, the Qi will dissipate and be wasted. Perhaps you will then have to learn how to deal with the mature Qi, if you have not already done so.

After further intensive training, perhaps your Qi will travel?