Monday, September 03, 2007

Chaos and unemployment

My last consultation of the Zhouyi was in April and in the midst of the current meltdown of the financial markets, I recently put to the Yi the simplest of questions, ‘What is happening?’

The prognostication came in the form of an unchanged Hexagram 3 Tun / Difficulty at the Beginning. Not surprising for any Yi aficionado to receive such an answer, during a time of stagnation where heaven and earth stay as they are, and when the inferior man (Xiao Ren) comes into prominence, the superior man (Junzi) withdraws into seclusion since no one wants to listen.

The judgment in Tun says:
Difficulty at the Beginning works supreme success, furthering through perseverance. Nothing should be undertaken. It furthers one to appoint helpers.

Commentary:
Times of growth are beset with difficulties. They resemble a first birth (an individual produced by heaven and earth).
When it is a man’s fate to undertake such new beginnings, everything is still unformed, dark. Hence he must hold back, because any premature move might bring disaster.
Like wise, it is very important not to remain alone; in order to overcome the chaos he need helpers. [W/B]

The image says:
Clouds and thunder: The image of Difficulty at the Beginning. Thus the superior man brings order out of confusion.

Who this Junzi will be is the trillion dollars question, since without the necessary and forthcoming revelations (read real exposure, estimated ‘damage’ or losses, denials); no one really knows how to resolve the current crises. Therefore team work is required which is what the G7 is currently doing.

Gleaning from the online financial pages of various international newspapers and reputable global TV stations, it seems that the US subprime mortgages, related CDOs and their highly ‘sophisticated’ derivatives amounting to trillions of US dollars are treated as off-balance sheet items by banks. The carry trades industry could easily add a few more trillions in credit exposure to these global banks not forgetting the hefty equity financing and the recent un-disgorged loans for leveraged buyouts. (The reason the Junzi who could resolve the chaos is considered a trillion dollars question.)

With various prestigious US universities’ economic professors coming forward to predict a major economic downturn arising from the deepening subprime mortgages crisis, and/or a 30 to 50% fall in US house prices, the Junzi will definitely need all the help, he or she can get to alleviate the problems of creditworthy house buyers and for the common good.

As to what these US professors have predicted will the US property market follow the horrendous falls (up to 70%) in prices of Hong Kong’s real properties witnessed after the Asian financial crisis and the SAR crisis? It is quite obvious, like the Hong Kong example given; there will be negative net worth of subprime properties, since the lending criteria to buyers of these houses in the US were irrational in the first place. But whether or not US house prices will fall 50% is anyone’s guess.

In times of chaos and unemployment, the Yi indicates not to undertake anything. The fated or 'heaven assigned' Junzi would handle the chaos and the unemployment factors.

Therefore one holds cash to wait for the debris from the crises fallout to settle.

This entry is written for most Yi aficionados. There are at least two more levels of interpretation of the prognostication if they understand the purpose of my ‘simplest question’ and ponder the Yi’s answer deeper.

The two other interpretations are reserved for another entry. Meanwhile those interested have some lead time (a day or two) to make their own interpretations, based on the assumption that the Yi has really spoken. Let us see if we can arrive at the same conclusion as to what the Yi had wanted to tell me and the world, with an unchanged hexagram Tun.
(Hint: there is still some time before the ominous omen, if any, occurs.)


Cheerio!

7 comments:

Regreso said...

Hi Alan

I'm not sure if you read in spanish; if you do (or if you risk to use translators as bablefish ;) ), you may be interested in this topic, posted by a good friend in e-ching's forum
http://forum.e-ching.com/showthread.php?t=3939

Is there any concection with you omen?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Not so much a big bang as a series of smaller bangs (corrections, and how apt is that word.)

The system will self correct but many will be hurt especially those over-extended; from domestic housing to the large financial institutions (houses of a sort.)
The US does not save but Asia does save but is impeded.
Asian countries, China in particular don't have effective means for their citizens to save - no good putting it under the bed (hexagram #23) or a Chinese bank...but where?

"Nothing should be undertaken" or fools rush in where angels fear to tread. The cleansing storm is coming.

Hold on to your hats, investors.

Allan said...

regreso,

Yi’s prognostications given to Jesed appear to differ from my received Hexagram 3 Tun. However this does not mean that the messages given to him are not as important, since Jesed and I work with different parameters on Yi divinations.

Perhaps you or someone else can summarize in English for readers and me, the gist of his interpretations on the omen(s) as posted in the E Ching Forum for comparison?

Regreso said...

Hi Alan

The key paragraph from Jesed's post is something like this:

In regards to world-wide economy, it has experienced serious transformations between October, 2006 and January,2007 (Sign 50). These transformations, that still are producing their effects and haven't been really understood yet, have led the world-wide economy to live now a period that requires extreme caution, attention to details and low expectations; any attempt to force growth or gains would lead to disaster (Sign 62).
Although the entire period is for caution, exist three specially delicate moments:
a) First 2 weeks of September,2007. If preventive measures are not taken, it could happen a severe blow or crisis.
b) First 2 weeks of October, 2007. Risk of lack of solidarity, isolations and proteccionism; that would cause "infertility" to the world-wide economy. Stagnation
c) By far, the most delicate moment is in the last 2 weeks of October, 2007. Risk of attempt to gain more than what the present possibilities allow.. and collapses consequently. The figure of a bird that rises too much and ends falling into the earth (line 6 of Sign 62).

In "a worldly" level, the cause of this find its root in a pesimism attitude of or cynicism with respect to the goal of world-wide economy serving as equitable sustenance for all(Sign 2 leading to 3). In a more "spiritual" level the cause is the excess of activism mixed with a strong load of arrogance (Sign 1 leading to 49)

Hope this can serve for comparison

Best

Allan said...

Thank you, regreso!

While the timing indicated by Jesed is about right, the portend events are not the same.

As indicated in previous entries on Hexagram 62 Xiao Guo, whenever the Yi gives me this hexagram over the past two decades, it constitutes an omen which allows the student to analyze and predict the exact timing on stock market rises and subsequent plunges. However under the same breath, one had cautioned that Yi diviners should not take Xiao Guo as omens, to be a given.

As to whether Hexagram 1 Qian and/or Hexagram 2 Kun are Yi omens remain to be seen. Not long to wait anyway for that to occur.

Cheerio!

regreso said...

Hi Allan

I'm still studying your last comment.

On one hand, "rise and plunge" makes a lot of sense with 62

On the other hand, since the day when Jesed made that divination, world-wide economy hadn't rise.. meanwhile, the two first weeks of sempember had ended, and "preventive measures" fits like the theme for them.

On the third hand (jaja), maybe there is no one-hand/other-hand, but only that I need to improve my studies about timing?

Best

Allan said...

Regreso,

If you read my entries on omens carefully, I do not ask for omens. Yi through one means or other gives them to protect me and kin from harm, which is in line with what is stated in the Doctrine of the Mean. (Chung Yung)

To improve your self studies on timing, I suggest you analyze your own previous Yi divinations – the larger the sample the better. And you may discern a noticeable pattern therein.

With that said, the most important thing to any Yi diviner is that the Yi must actually speak. If the Yi did not speak, we are just fooling ourselves and everyone else toying with the ‘prognostications’. Perhaps for self improvement and to be a bit more professional, we also have to learn to discern if the Yi had spoken to us and/or to others.

Regards