Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Do not chase after the horse (7)

With some encouragement from the wild horses and probably from neighbors (read both local and foreign stock analysts), the horse has finally bolted from the stable and galloped away.

Instead of trying to chase after the horse, one could only look on in anticipation, actually hoping that it could fly like a Pegasus. Why? For it to reach the fivefold target of 50, the GT shares have to climb more than 50% of its previous week’s close. And flew, it did.

As indicated by the Zhouyi and therefore expected, the target was breached this time, although more than one month late. One’s prediction was that this target will be reached in May. However, one doubts anyone would mind the slight delay for such an increase in the share price. Least of all, a big client who bought 3 million shares at around 14, all he could afford to, last February. And he had promised an undetermined (probably small) fee for the advice, payable after he has taken his profits.

Both the local and foreign stock analysts have recently written rave reports on the current market value of the company’s land which they estimated to be a few times higher than its book (or carrying) value. Ah, but their findings are old news, since the Book of Changes had already told me about the hidden treasure last year.

With the rave reviews, and the various perceived obstacles gone, one recently predicted with confidence that the target will be breached this time around. Since the fund managers and the investing public have come to know about the treasure of GT.

A point to note, while changing lines of an Oracle are into specifics, what each hexagram indicates is equally if not more important on questions about investments. From my constructed table for investments, Hexagram 38 Kui / Opposition promise an above average Return on Investment (ROI). Perhaps, a higher return than many I Ching aficionados expect just from reading the judgment: Opposition. In small matters, good fortune.

In divinations on investments, experience counts more than theory. After having spent a few decades divining on various investments, perhaps fellow Yi diviners could also developed a keen insight on how each prognostication will unfold and its timing. In my book, an above average ROI promises a return of 40 % to 60 % on the original investment. If in doubt, use a calculator to double check the returns on my recent buyback of the GT shares. Yes, the shares have gone up more than 60% from the price one paid for the repurchase. But the price was higher than 28 when I asked the Zhouyi about the buyback in a falling market.

This ‘live’ case study is nothing extraordinary. A tip of the iceberg, as they say. It was just a matter of doing some homework, divination, correct interpretation, following the Yi’s guidance and to cheerfully wait for the prognostication to unfold.

Perhaps regular readers may now understand why during the 1993 Bull Run, friends of my friends and relatives had called them ‘ShenXian’ (Daoist gods and immortals). With prolific divinations back then, one could determine with precision when the share market will go up, when it will fall, and what shares to buy, or buyback for the best returns – in terms of the number of folds (not percentages). After pondering over the Oracles, one would then share the prognostications with friends and relatives and what each oracle relates to. And if their ‘followers’ ask them how the market will perform and when their ‘predictions’ comes true time and time again, obviously they would be called ‘ShenXian’. Hey, to date, these friends and relatives still call me, Allan.
(Refer to the Flying dragon in the heavens, July 01 2005 entry.)

However do remember this; the real Yi masters (someone like Guan Lu of the Three Kingdoms era) remain hidden.

Meanwhile the skeptics and those expert diviners, who still doubt that the Yi can tell the future, carry on their beliefs and business as usual. Time could pass these doubters by and perhaps so will the Yi. After all, whence the sincerity?


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